Well-calibrated predictions from on-line compression models
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Well-Calibrated Predictions from Online Compression Models
It has been shown recently that Transductive Confidence Machine (TCM) is automatically well-calibrated when used in the on-line mode and provided that the data sequence is generated by an exchangeable distribution. In this paper we strengthen this result by relaxing the assumption of exchangeability of the data-generating distribution to the much weaker assumption that the data agrees with a gi...
متن کاملOn-Line Confidence Machines Are Well-Calibrated
Transductive Confidence Machine (TCM) and its computationally efficient modification, Inductive Confidence Machine (ICM), are ways of complementing machine-learning algorithms with practically useful measures of confidence. We show that when TCM and ICM are used in the on-line mode, their confidence measures are well-calibrated, in the sense that predictive regions at confidence level 1 − δ wil...
متن کاملA Universal Well-Calibrated Algorithm for On-line Classification
We study the problem of on-line classification in which the prediction algorithm, for each “significance level” δ, is required to output as its prediction a range of labels (intuitively, those labels deemed compatible with the available data at the level δ) rather than just one label; as usual, the examples are assumed to be generated independently from the same probability distribution P. The ...
متن کاملOn Calibrated Predictions for Auction Selection Mechanisms
Calibration is a basic property for prediction systems, and algorithms for achieving it are well-studied in both statistics and machine learning. In many applications, however, the predictions are used to make decisions that select which observations are made. This makes calibration difficult, as adjusting predictions to achieve calibration changes future data. We focus on click-through-rate (C...
متن کاملMicroclimate Data Improve Predictions of Insect Abundance Models Based on Calibrated Spatiotemporal Temperatures
A large body of literature has recently recognized the role of microclimates in controlling the physiology and ecology of species, yet the relevance of fine-scale climatic data for modeling species performance and distribution remains a matter of debate. Using a 6-year monitoring of three potato moth species, major crop pests in the tropical Andes, we asked whether the spatiotemporal resolution...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Theoretical Computer Science
سال: 2006
ISSN: 0304-3975
DOI: 10.1016/j.tcs.2006.07.038